Probabilità implicita attuale
4.4-4.6m 76.8%+13.6ptIn testa tra 7 esitiCorretto per il margine: le quote grezze sommavano oltre il 100% e sono state normalizzate.
Qualità del mercato
68 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
1,3K €
Liquidità
7,1K €
Liquidità mediaSpread
1.3 pt
Spread strettoCommenti
6
Variazione 7g
-22.8 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
20 nov 25, 23:46 UTC1 ott 26, 00:00 UTC
Trend
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Lowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026
KalshiWhich Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsArctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2026?
Futuur(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?
PolymarketRegole
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
- This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately.
- Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
- The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km).
- Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
- The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools.
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
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+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
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- Volume 24h
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KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 109,5K €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,9K €
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
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- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
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- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer??
- Polymarket quota 4.4-4.6m al 77% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer??
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.