Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026?
12.0 pt (24h)One-OffWeather22gManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBelow 4.6 million km² 99%+12.0ptIn testa tra 7 esiti
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6
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multiple choice
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Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
24 ago 26, 17:28 UTC1 ott 26, 16:00 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
Each answer resolves independently.
- An answer resolves YES if the National Snow and Ice Data Center records at least one qualifying daily Arctic sea-ice extent strictly below that answer's threshold.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.
- The measurement is the lowest individual daily Extent value in the NSIDC Sea Ice Index Version 4 Northern Hemisphere daily CSV for dates from December 19, 2025 through October 1, 2026, measured in millions of square kilometers.
- A value exactly equal to a threshold does not count as below it.
- Use the data available at 10:00 AM ET on October 7, 2026; later revisions are ignored.
Mercati aperti
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
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- Volume 24h
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KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Houston+41.0pt71%
- Miami-6.0pt69%
+19 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 186,1K €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+36.0pt81.7%
- 90° to 91°-29.0pt7.7%
- 94° or above+3.0pt7.7%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt68.2%
- 82° to 83°-12.0pt24.3%
- 79° or below-3.0pt4.7%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No89%
- Yes-4.0pt11%
- Volume totale
- 66,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 28,6K €
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota Below 4.6 million km² al 99% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026??
- Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Each answer resolves independently.