Previsione della comunità attuale
No 57.8%
Previsori
73
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
11 set 23, 09:11 UTC1 gen 50, 15:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
PolymarketWhich Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsLowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026
KalshiArctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2026?
FutuurWill more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
The criteria for resolving yes is that the Arctic must be fully ice-free at any point in time between now and the start of 2050.
- The Arctic does not need to be fully gone by the year 2050, it just needs to be ice-free at a moment in time.
- Whether the Arctic is fully ice-free will be based on news articles from reputable sources.
- If there's any controversy, I will discuss about it with Manifold users in the comments.
- As a last resort of resolution criteria, this question will resolve Yes when the Arctic ice coverage (at a threshold 15% ice density) falls below 100,000 km squared, as reported in numbers from http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
- The Arctic has less ice cover in summer than in winter, so it is plausible that in summer, the Arctic will be fully ice-free, but in winter, it will reappear.
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per (M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 58% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve (M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050??
- (M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2050.
- Come viene liquidato (M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The criteria for resolving yes is that the Arctic must be fully ice-free at any point in time between now and the start of 2050.
