Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 88.2%
Previsori
40
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 19 ore fa
Obsoleto6 giu 24, 00:06 UTC1 gen 31, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?
Manifold MarketsMajor earthquake to hit the West Coast of the US by the end of 2026?
FutuurWe discover that the US had an earthquake-producing weapon by EOY 2030
Manifold Markets9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
PolymarketWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiRegole
Major earthquake would involve property damage of over $1B or loss of life over 100.
- Epicenter has to be within 50 miles of San Francisco.
- Loma Prieta quake would not have qualified due to distance.
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 230,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 77,1K €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 109,5K €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,9K €
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- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
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- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
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- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 88% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030??
- Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2031.
- Come viene liquidato Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Major earthquake would involve property damage of over $1B or loss of life over 100.