Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 95%
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
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Aggiornato 18 ore fa
Obsoleto10 ago 26, 16:22 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill we discover alien life before 2031?
Manifold Markets9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
PolymarketWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiHighest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
I criteri di risoluzione non sono ancora disponibili per questo mercato. Questa sezione verra popolata con i prossimi aggiornamenti quando le regole della fonte saranno salvate.
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 230,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 77,1K €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 109,5K €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,9K €
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per We discover that the US had an earthquake-producing weapon by EOY 2030?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 95% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve We discover that the US had an earthquake-producing weapon by EOY 2030?
- We discover that the US had an earthquake-producing weapon by EOY 2030 dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.