Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 85.6%
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto22 dic 25, 09:28 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which "The Economist" "World Ahead" predictions for 2026 will come true?
Manifold MarketsPredictions about Syria in 2026
Manifold Markets2026 political predictions (add your own)
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
PolymarketU.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if there is no report of these in the common media channels in 2026:
- Velina’s Foresight for 2026:
- 1) No hot war between US, China & Russia (sorry to all folks selling doom-and-gloom about WW3)
- 2) No military attack by China on Taiwan (further rise of tensions)
- 3) No nuclear exchange or direct conventional confrontation between Russia and Europe
- https://x.com/i/status/2002804420896039404
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Velina Tchakarova's three NO WAR predictions for 2026?
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 86% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Velina Tchakarova's three NO WAR predictions for 2026?
- Velina Tchakarova's three NO WAR predictions for 2026 dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Velina Tchakarova's three NO WAR predictions for 2026?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if there is no report of these in the common media channels in 2026: