US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
9.0 pt (24h)GeopoliticaOne-OffMiddle East26g
PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
September 30 72%+4.5ptIn testa tra 5 esiti
Qualità del mercato
≤74 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
52,7K €
Liquidità
106K €
Alta liquiditàSpread
2.0 pt
Spread moderatoCommenti
9
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
2 set 26, 0:2430 set 26, 23:59
Trend
Regole
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred).
- The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day.
- This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET).
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran.