U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
Politica USAOne-OffRussia / UcrainaGeopoliticaCinaEuropa1a
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June 30, 2027 · —
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June 30, 2027 40%In testa tra 3 esiti
June 30, 2027 40%Qualità del mercato
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June 30, 2027Spread
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Aggiornato 25 minuti fa
28 mag 26, 19:41 UTC1 gen 28, 04:59 UTC
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Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Polymarket
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- Ordine minimo (quote):
- 5
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- 1 punti percentuali
- Commissioni:
- No
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
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PolymarketWill Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
PolymarketWill it be illegal to give a child an adult phone before 2036?
Manifold MarketsWill Ireland give up its neutrality before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the Trump administration and the Government of Ukraine, which creates a binding obligation for the United States to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the United States must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
- Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
- Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
- Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024, US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.
