European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
0.5 pt (24h)GeopoliticaOne-OffRussia / UcrainaCinaEuropa2m
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Dati al 26 ott 2026, 03:24 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Punto medio del book selezionato
December 31 · —
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December 31 9%
December 31 9%Qualità del mercato
47 / 100
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13,2K €
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4,5K USD
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December 31Spread
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13
Variazione 7g
+2.5 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 26 minuti fa
28 dic 25, 23:07 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
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June 30Persa
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Polymarket
Queste condizioni sono informative; il trading simulato di CoinRithm segue regole proprie.
- Ordine minimo (quote):
- 5
- Incremento di prezzo:
- 1 punti percentuali
- Commissioni:
- No
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Caricamento dei principali detentori
Profondità di mercato · December 31
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the relevant European country must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
- Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
- Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
- Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.