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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Geopolitica
  3. European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?

3.5% (24h)GeopoliticaOne-OffRussia / UkraineChinaEurope6m
PolymarketPolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissione
Probabilità implicita attuale
December 31
December 31 13%-3.5%
Qualita del mercato

56 / 100

Qualità media
Volume 24h

213,2 €

Liquidità

24,9K €

Alta liquidità
Bid / Ask

10.0% / 15.0%

Spread

50.0%

Spread ampio
Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 3 minuti fa

28 dic 25, 23:1231 dic 26, 0:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

December 3113%

Regole

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
  • A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the relevant European country must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
  • Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
  • Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
  • Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.

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Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$62,698.48+2.40%EthereumETH$1,651.75+1.77%SolanaSOL$65.18+1.84%DogecoinDOGE$0.0851+2.00%XRPXRP$1.12+0.54%BNBBNB$595.51+1.80%

Notizie Correlate

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Regole

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
  • A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the relevant European country must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
  • Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
  • Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
  • Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.