2026 political predictions (add your own)
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAEuropaCriminalità e giustiziaIAGeopolitica2mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 24 ott 2026, 04:21 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeThe leader of a country will die 100%In testa tra 13 esiti
Previsori
16
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto29 mag 26, 23:49 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- Each option resolves independently to YES or NO based on events starting from today (30th May) through to the end of the year.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if a head of state or head of government (e.g., President, Prime Minister, Ruling Monarch, Supreme Leader) of a sovereign nation dies while in office during 2026.
- A figure in the Epstein files is prosecuted for wrongdoing: Resolves YES if any individual named in the official documents released is formally arrested, indicted, or criminally charged in connection with the files.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if a serving president of any sovereign nation is killed in a violent, politically motivated attack.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if a criminal trial formally begins proceedings in the International Criminal Court during 2026.
