FutuurVerifica disponibilitàDati di risoluzione verificatiProbabilità implicita attuale
No 91%
No 91%Qualità del mercato
33 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
1,1K €
Bassa liquiditàTrader
4
Commenti
0
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
PolymarketWill the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%?
Manifold MarketsNegative growth in Brazil's GDP in any quarter of 2026?
FutuurChina GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?
PolymarketChina Annual GDP Growth 2026
PolymarketUS real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
KalshiRegole
This market predicts whether the United States will report negative real GDP growth in at least one of the first three quarters of 2026 (Q1 2026, Q2 2026, or Q3 2026).
- If the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports a seasonally adjusted, annualized real GDP growth rate of less than 0% for any of Q1 2026, Q2 2026, or Q3 2026 — based on the BEA's third (final) estimate for that quarter, or the most recent published estimate available by December 31, 2026 23:59:59 UTC — this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The Primary Designated Source is the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Gross Domestic Product release.
- Resolution uses the third estimate (final) where available, otherwise the most recent BEA estimate for the quarter as of December 31, 2026 23:59:59 UTC.
- A consensus of credible reporting (Reuters, AP, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg) may confirm the BEA figures.