PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneProbabilità implicita attualeSì 20%+0.0%
Qualita del mercato
80 / 100
Alta qualitàVolume 24h
2,7K €
Liquidità
23,5K €
Alta liquiditàBid / Ask
19.0% / 20.0%
Spread
5.3%
Spread moderatoVariazione 7g
-1.0%
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
29 set 25, 22:2931 gen 27, 0:00
Trend
Esito scelto
Yes20%
Disponibile anche su Limitless
US recession by end of 2026?
7m
19.5%
80.5%
28 • Bassa qualitàSpread sconosciutoBassa liquiditàMercato poco profondo
Volume totale2,9K €
Volume 24h0 €
LIMITLESSRegole
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
I dati di confronto sono solo informativi. I prezzi e la liquidità possono variare.
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Regole
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".