Probabilità implicita attuale
Soft Landing 48.5%-8.0ptIn testa tra 4 esiti
Qualità del mercato
46 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
527,4 €
Liquidità
3,9K €
Liquidità mediaSpread
11.0 pt
Spread ampioCommenti
5
Variazione 7g
-11.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 minuti fa
24 apr 26, 21:49 UTC31 gen 27, 00:00 UTC
Trend
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US economic recession in 2026?
FutuurWill the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Trump economic boom?
KalshiWhen will the next big economic crash occur?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketRegole
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release.
- The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
- This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
- If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
- This market will resolve to “the named outcome (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
- This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
- Disponibile anche su Kalshi — State of the economy at the end of 2026 · Soft landing 58%
Mercati aperti
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 91 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 569,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 359,2K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 altri esiti
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 79,7K €
- Volume 24h
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 18,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 7,3K €
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per US economic state at the end of 2026??
- Polymarket quota Soft Landing al 48% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve US economic state at the end of 2026??
- US economic state at the end of 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato US economic state at the end of 2026??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release.
- Dove altro è quotato US economic state at the end of 2026??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Kalshi.