Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 87.2%
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto13 apr 25, 18:20 UTC1 gen 31, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketUS economic recession in 2026?
FutuurBy 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
Manifold MarketsWill the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China have an economic recession induced by overcapacity before EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Trump economic boom?
KalshiRegole
Resolution Criteria:
- The market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during the specified period, the U.S. economy meets both of the following conditions:
- Duration and Depth of Economic Decline:
- The U.S. experiences a continuous period of economic downturn lasting at least 24 months, during which there is a cumulative decline in real GDP of 10% or more.
- Unemployment Rate:
- The national unemployment rate reaches 15% or higher for six consecutive months.
Mercati aperti
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 89,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 541,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 334,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8K €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7K €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume totale
- 612,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9K €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume totale
- 2,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3K €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the US have an economic depression before January 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 87% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the US have an economic depression before January 2030??
- Will the US have an economic depression before January 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2031.
- Come viene liquidato Will the US have an economic depression before January 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution Criteria: