Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 66%
Previsori
26
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto28 ago 23, 20:59 UTC31 dic 30, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China have an economic recession induced by overcapacity before EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Mexico go through two or more years of negative economic growth by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a Trump economic boom?
KalshiUS economic recession in 2026?
FutuurRegole
This will be resolved based on the percentage difference in GDP per person in US dollars at purchase power parity (PPP).
- [image]I define Western Europe as something like the EU prior to the admission of Poland (minus Greece, plus Switzerland, Norway), but I don't expect to litigate the concept; the economies are highly correlated and the big countries will drive the result.
Mercati aperti
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 89,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 541,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 334,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8K €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7K €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume totale
- 612,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9K €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume totale
- 2,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3K €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 66% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030??
- Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This will be resolved based on the percentage difference in GDP per person in US dollars at purchase power parity (PPP).