LimitlessVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiCalibrazione approssimativaProbabilità implicita attuale
No 95%
Qualità del mercato
30 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
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Liquidità
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Liquidità sconosciutaDati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
7 gen 26, 16:44 UTC1 feb 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
- If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
2 piattaforme quotano attualmente questo mercato. La probabilità di riferimento ponderata per la liquidità di CoinRithm per Riferimento CoinRithm è del 8%. Le quotazioni differiscono di circa 3 punti percentuali tra le piattaforme più distanti.
Riferimento CoinRithm 8% · 2 piattaforme · 3 pt di scarto tra venue
Mercati aperti
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 90,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 Mln €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 358,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 35,6K €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 554,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 33,8K €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Volume totale
- 314,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 11K €
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 17,7K €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 76K €
- Volume 24h
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per US recession by end of 2026??
- Limitless quota No al 95% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve US recession by end of 2026??
- US recession by end of 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 febbraio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato US recession by end of 2026??
- Limitless liquida questo mercato come segue: <p>This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:</p><ol><li>The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).</li><li>The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.</li></ol><p>Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".</p><p>Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- Dove altro è quotato US recession by end of 2026??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Manifold Markets, Futuur, Polymarket.