LimitlessVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYCDati verificati limitatiProbabilità implicita attualeSì 10.9%
Qualita del mercato
28 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
0 €
Liquidità
0 €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
-
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 minuti fa
7 gen 26, 16:441 feb 27, 4:59
Trend
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
Yes11%
Confronta le piattaforme· No
Ordinato per qualità del mercato, poi liquidità e volume 24h| Piattaforma | Qualità | Probabilità | vs riferimento | Volume 24h | Liquidità | Aggiornamento | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMigliore in assoluto79% di corrispondenza · auto | Media | 88% | +76pt | 335,9 € | 16,6K € | 18 minuti fa | Apri → |
| LimitlessQuesta pagina | Bassa | 89% | +77pt | 0 € | 0 € | 18 minuti fa | |
 Manifold Markets82% di corrispondenza · verificato | — | 88% | +76pt | — | — | l’altro ieri | Apri → |
Disponibile anche su Manifold Markets
US recession in 2026?
5m
88.4%
11.6%
Previsione della comunità134 previsoriTipo: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSDisponibile anche su Polymarket
US recession by end of 2026?
0.5%6m
88%
+0.0%12%
52 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioLiquidità media
Volume totale1,5 Mln €
Volume 24h335,9 €
POLYMARKETRegole
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
- If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
I dati di confronto sono solo informativi. I prezzi e la liquidità possono variare.
Trend del volume
$0.006 lug21g di dati26 lug
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)
8,9K €Above 3.4%: 29%
KALSHI
KALSHI
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
3,9K €0-1%: 56%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Recession this year?
3,1K €Sì: 11%KALSHI
KALSHI
2026: Trump's dream year?
1,8K €Sì: 5%KALSHI
KALSHI
US economic state at the end of 2026?
1,5K €Soft Landing: 62%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?
395,5 €Sì: 16.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSAttivi in questi argomenti
Regole
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
- If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product