KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 97%
Qualità del mercato
78 / 100
Alta qualitàVolume 24h
800,3 €
Liquidità
151,6K €
Alta liquiditàBid / Ask
3.3% / 4.5%
Spread
1.2 pt
Spread strettoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 minuti fa
17 dic 25, 15:00 UTC31 dic 27, 15:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US government budget balance in 2026
KalshiGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiUS government shutdown on October 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsRegole
If **ALL** of the following occur:
Si regola tramite:VoteHubU.S. House of RepresentativesU.S. SenateBureau of Economic AnalysisBureau of Labor StatisticsBureau of Labor Statistics
- Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND 2.
- Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND 3.
- U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND 4.
- The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026
- then the market resolves to Yes.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Mercati aperti
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt78.4%
- No change20.6%
- 50+ bps increase-0.2pt1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 120,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 4,7 Mln €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Volume totale
- 3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 10,4K €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -9.0% of GDP-6.0pt92%
- Above -8.5% of GDP-8.0pt85%
- Above -8.0% of GDP65%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 30,6K €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes23%
- Volume totale
- 345,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 6,6K €
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt90%
- Above -5.0% of GDP+2.0pt83%
- Above -4.5% of GDP65%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 43,2K €
KALSHIWisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 447,500 jobs96%
- Above 450,000 jobs+1.0pt95%
- Above 452,500 jobs+9.0pt93%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 109,4K €
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- CPI in September
- Unemployment in September
- US real GDP growth in 2026?
- GDP growth in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4% in September 2026?
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per 2026: Trump's dream year??
- Kalshi quota No al 97% al 13 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve 2026: Trump's dream year??
- 2026: Trump's dream year? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato 2026: Trump's dream year??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If **ALL** of the following occur:
- Dove altro è quotato 2026: Trump's dream year??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Manifold Markets.