KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 94%
Qualità del mercato
70 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
65 €
Liquidità
80,3K €
Alta liquiditàBid / Ask
5.0% / 6.7%
Spread
1.7 pt
Spread strettoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 minuti fa
17 dic 25, 15:00 UTC31 dic 27, 15:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US government budget balance in 2026
KalshiGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
Kalshi2026: Trump's dream year?
KalshiWill an American presidential candidate in 2028 run on a platform that includes nationalizing or pausing AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?
Manifold Markets2026 a nightmare year for Trump?
Manifold MarketsRegole
If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:VoteHubU.S. House of RepresentativesBureau of Economic AnalysisBureau of Labor StatisticsBureau of Labor Statistics
- This is a combination market requiring **ALL** specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
- If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset:
- - "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL - "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS - "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT
- For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).
Mercati aperti
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 90,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 Mln €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 358,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 35,6K €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 554,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 33,8K €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Volume totale
- 314,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 11K €
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 17,7K €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 76K €
- Volume 24h
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per 2026: Trump's bad year??
- Kalshi quota No al 94% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve 2026: Trump's bad year??
- 2026: Trump's bad year? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato 2026: Trump's bad year??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.