KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiCalibrazione approssimativaProbabilità implicita attualeSì 47%-2.0%
Qualita del mercato
91 / 100
Alta qualitàVolume 24h
586,7 €
Liquidità
25,6K €
Alta liquiditàBid / Ask
47.0% / 48.0%
Spread
2.1%
Spread strettoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 22 minuti fa
9 giu 26, 20:301 ott 26, 14:00
Trend
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
Yes47%
Confronta le piattaforme· No
Ordinato per qualità del mercato, poi liquidità e volume 24h| Piattaforma | Qualità | Probabilità | vs riferimento | Volume 24h | Liquidità | Aggiornamento | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiQuesta paginaMigliore in assoluto | Alta | 53% | +6pt | 586,7 € | 25,6K € | 22 minuti fa | |
 Polymarket92% di corrispondenza · auto | Bassa | 53% | +6pt | 0 € | 3K € | 22 minuti fa | Apri → |
Disponibile anche su Polymarket
Government shutdown by October 1?
6.0%2m
-0.1%53%
+0.1%47%
40 • Bassa qualitàSpread ampioLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità
Volume totale819,6 €
Volume 24h0 €
POLYMARKETRegole
If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
- Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
- OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
- Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
- A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations
I dati di confronto sono solo informativi. I prezzi e la liquidità possono variare.
Trend del volume
$6672 lug25g di dati26 lug
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If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
- Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
- OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
- Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
- A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations