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  1. Mercati Predittivi
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  3. Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

PoliticaOne-OffEconomiaUS PoliticsElezione3m
KalshiKalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissione
Probabilità implicita attuale
Sì
Sì 37%
Qualita del mercato

49 / 100

Bassa qualità
Volume 24h

2,5 €

Liquidità

3,6 €

Bassa liquidità
Bid / Ask

36.0% / 37.0%

Spread

2.8%

Spread stretto
Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 1 minuto fa

9 giu 26, 20:301 ott 26, 14:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Yes37%

Regole

If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
  • Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
  • OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
  • Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
  • A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations

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Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$62,664.91+2.34%EthereumETH$1,650.38+1.55%SolanaSOL$65.16+1.60%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.74%XRPXRP$1.12+0.22%BNBBNB$595.47+1.68%

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Regole

If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
  • Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
  • OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
  • Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
  • A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations