Previsione della comunità attuale
Feb 1 2026 100%In testa tra 13 esiti
Previsori
49
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-40.1 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
24 gen 26, 22:4629 nov 26, 22:43
Trend
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Regole
If the government is shut down for at least 1 minute on the listed date, Washington DC time, resolves yes for that date.
- Resolution will be based on whether a shutdown notice is visible on the OPM (Office of Personnel Management) site for at least part of a day.
- If a notice is visible on the OPM site for any portion of a given date, that date will resolve YES.
- Otherwise it will resolve NO.
- A shut down end will be determined by the date on which the funding package required to reopen the government is signed by the President or otherwise enacted.
- The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
Mercati aperti
Politics
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance-3.0pt50%
- Marco Rubio17%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 600,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,9 Mln €
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-1.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.7pt13%
- Jon Ossoff11%
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POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez20%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+48 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mld €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt53.4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt42.7%
- Renan Santos-0.6pt1.9%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.5pt36.8%
- Édouard Philippe29.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.7%
+38 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.8%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.8%
- Gavin Newsom12.9%
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- Volume totale
- 181 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 390,2K €
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per On which dates will the US government be shutdown??
- Manifold Markets quota Feb 1 2026 al 100% al 4 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve On which dates will the US government be shutdown??
- On which dates will the US government be shutdown? dovrebbe risolversi il 29 novembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato On which dates will the US government be shutdown??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: If the government is shut down for at least 1 minute on the listed date, Washington DC time, resolves yes for that date.