Probabilità implicita attuale
No 99%-0.1pt
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
20,1K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
0.7% / 1.0%
Spread
0.3 pt
Spread strettoCommenti
0
Variazione 7g
-1.3 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 minuti fa
10 giu 26, 16:29 UTC2 ott 26, 03:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a government shutdown before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiRegole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
- A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
- A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
- Partial shutdowns qualify.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Mercati aperti
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+12.0pt64.7%
- No change-12.0pt34.3%
- 50+ bps increase+0.2pt1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 97,8 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 4,8 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.0%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 702,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 91K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 400K €
- Volume 24h
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%-1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-8.0pt26%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 34,5K €
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP79%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-5.0pt62%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,3K €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No97%
- Yes-3.0pt3%
- Volume totale
- 2,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 4,9K €
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- GDP growth in 2026
- China unemployment rate in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession in 2027?
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Government shutdown by October 1??
- Polymarket quota No al 99% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Government shutdown by October 1??
- Government shutdown by October 1? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Government shutdown by October 1??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Dove altro è quotato Government shutdown by October 1??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Manifold Markets, Kalshi.