Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 96.1%
Previsori
41
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo13 feb 26, 19:20 UTC30 set 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Government shutdown by October 1?
PolymarketAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold MarketsUS Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS announces another drawdown of Strategic Petroleum Reserve before October 1st
Manifold MarketsUS government budget balance in 2026
KalshiRegole
Resolves YES iff the US Office of Personnel Management announces a federal government shutdown (including a partial shutdown) due to a lapse in appropriations on the operating status page by 11:59pm ET on October 1st, 2026.
- (stole criteria from @brod's market)
- NOTE: This market is asking about the gov shutdown for government funding due to expire on Sep 31, 2026.
- The DHS partial shutdown in Feb 2026 is not relevant for this market.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Mercati aperti
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 89,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 541,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 334,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8K €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7K €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume totale
- 612,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9K €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume totale
- 2,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3K €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per US government shutdown on October 1st 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 96% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve US government shutdown on October 1st 2026??
- US government shutdown on October 1st 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 settembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato US government shutdown on October 1st 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES iff the US Office of Personnel Management announces a federal government shutdown (including a partial shutdown) due to a lapse in appropriations on the operating status page by 11:59pm ET on October 1st, 2026.
- Dove altro è quotato US government shutdown on October 1st 2026??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Polymarket, Kalshi.