If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
EconomiaOne-OffPoliticaPolitica USA1a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 69.2%
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Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto7 ott 26, 02:55 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf Democrats win the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
Manifold MarketsGovernment shutdown by which date?
PolymarketGovernment shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?
KalshiAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Condition: Democrats control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Democratic senators plus independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 seats (a 50–50 Senate is Republican control because the Vice President is a Republican).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if a lapse in federal appropriations causes a shutdown (agencies begin orderly shutdown procedures and furlough non-excepted employees) that starts at any time during calendar year 2027 (U.S. Eastern time), whether full or partial.
- A lapse that starts in 2026 and continues into 2027 does not count; one starting in 2027 counts even if brief.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the Senate.