Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 95%
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto21 dic 25, 09:17 UTC30 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiChina’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiWill the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill president Trump mint the coin at any point during his administration?
Manifold MarketsWill two Democratic and two GOP Senators cosponsor an AI bill that mentions widespread job loss from AI before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegole
If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Sources from VoteHub, U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Resolves the same as Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpbullcasecombo/trumps-year-bull-dream-case/kxtrumpbullcasecombo-27dec
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Mercati aperti
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt64%
- No change-10.0pt35%
- 50+ bps increase+0.4pt1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 96,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 656,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 85,1K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 386K €
- Volume 24h
- 25,6K €
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-10.0pt80%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-20.0pt60%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-6.0pt30%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 29,4K €
KALSHIState of the economy at the end of 2026
- Soft landing-5.7pt50.5%
- Overheating+11.8pt44.8%
- Stagflation-2.6pt2.9%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
- US government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2034?
- China unemployment rate in August
- GDP growth in 2026
- Recession this year?
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per 2026 a dream year for trump??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 95% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve 2026 a dream year for trump??
- 2026 a dream year for trump? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato 2026 a dream year for trump??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Dove altro è quotato 2026 a dream year for trump??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Kalshi.