Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 06:50 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 95%
Previsori
23
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto4 feb 26, 17:47 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
In which months will there be a day the US gas average is at $4 or below?
Manifold MarketsBy 2027, will there be a US-China bilateral AI agreement, negotiated partly by an AI mediator?
Manifold MarketsWill There be a US House member born after 1 Jan 2000 before 1 Feb 2027?
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KalshiAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a government shutdown before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- A US federal shutdown occurs when funding legislation required to finance the federal government is not enacted before the next fiscal year begins.
- This market resolves YES if any federal shutdown (full or partial) occurs during November 2026.
- A "full" shutdown occurs when none of the 12 annual appropriations are in force, while a "partial" shutdown occurs when only some bills have been enacted, so only unfunded departments and programs shut down.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from Congress, the Office of Management and Budget, or major news outlets confirming a shutdown has begun.
- The market resolves NO if Congress passes and the President signs appropriations bills or a continuing resolution funding the government through November 30, 2026 without a lapse occurring.