PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 98%+0.3pt
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
815,2 €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
2.1% / 2.4%
Spread
0.3 pt
Spread strettoCommenti
5
Variazione 7g
-0.5 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 minuti fa
13 nov 25, 21:18 UTC29 gen 27, 00:00 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
Futuur[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%?
Manifold MarketsNegative growth in Brazil's GDP in any quarter of 2026?
FutuurJapan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
PolymarketGDP growth in 2026
PolymarketRegole
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
- The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
- Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution.
- Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercati aperti
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 89,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 541,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 334,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8K €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7K €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume totale
- 612,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9K €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume totale
- 2,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3K €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Negative GDP growth in 2026??
- Polymarket quota No al 98% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Negative GDP growth in 2026??
- Negative GDP growth in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 29 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Negative GDP growth in 2026??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0.