base

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

0.1 pt (24h)1a

December 31, 2027

+5.0pt56.8%

June 30, 2027

-0.5pt34.2%

December 31, 2026

8.1%

+3 altri esiti

Alta qualità (82)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale7,9 Mln USD

Volume 24h92,5K USD

POLYMARKET

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

3.5 pt (24h)1a

$500M

-0.5pt59%

$1B

-3.5pt46%

$2B

43%

+7 altri esiti

Qualità media (62)Spread moderatoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale749,6K USD

Volume 24h336 USD

POLYMARKET

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

94.4%

Sì

5.6%

Previsione della comunità55 previsoriTipo: binary

3 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?

5–7 wins

40.2%

8-9 wins

30.2%

10-11 wins

13.2%

+2 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità8 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

7 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]

If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

79.6%

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

74.6%

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

63.9%

+3 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità74 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

8 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

Before 2035

44.2%

2035 - 2045

24.1%

2045 - 2060

20.8%

+3 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità58 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

8 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What is the base of the next nice number?

111 - 120

29.4%

121 - 125

22.3%

101 - 110

14.1%

+6 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità11 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

9 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?

United States

11.7%

France

5.5%

Canada

4.5%

+4 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità19 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

13 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?

2.00% to 2.75%

21.8%

3.00% to 3.75%

21.8%

4.00% to 4.75%

16.5%

+4 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità4 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

16 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?

Mauritius

46.9%

United Kingdom

25.7%

United States

10%

+5 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità9 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

20 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

2100

28.5%

2075

21.7%

2050

14%

+9 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità32 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

20 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

Sì

67.8%

32.2%

Previsione della comunità15 previsoriTipo: binary

14 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

OpenAI

75.5%

Anthropic

55%

Google (DeepMind)

35%

+10 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità11 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

4 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?

53%

Sì

47%

Previsione della comunità15 previsoriTipo: binary

21 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?

2027

98.2%

2028

98%

2029

97.6%

+1 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità11 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

17 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

98.1%

Sì

1.9%

Previsione della comunità49 previsoriTipo: binary

4 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]

USA does not control whole of Greenland by EOY

97%

<10sqkm of Greenlandic territory controlled by US by EOY

92.7%

Resolves 50% if the US owns <10sqkm of Greenland by EOY, otherwise, resolves to 5x the number of traders on this option.

49%

+18 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità145 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

21 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a moon base by 2030?

90%

Sì

10%

Previsione della comunità46 previsoriTipo: binary

23 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

101-150

39.3%

151-200

31.5%

201-250

8.4%

+7 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità49 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

2 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027

4.00%

41%

3.75%

38.6%

4.25%

6.7%

+7 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità5 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

23 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

Neither by close date

91.3%

China invades Taiwan first

6.7%

U.S. invades/acquires Greenland first

1.7%

+1 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità37 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

ieri

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?

Pete Buttigieg

59.3%

Josh Shapiro

59.1%

Raphael Warnock

58.1%

+21 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità32 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

12 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

Anthropic

40.3%

OpenAI

27.8%

Google

13.8%

+4 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità17 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

4 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Where will I live in October 2026?

21g

Menlo Park, CA

27.8%

Stanford, CA

13.2%

Berkeley, CA

13.1%

+5 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità13 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

20 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2028?

4.00%

22.2%

3.75%

15.8%

4.25%

12.6%

+8 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità2 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

21 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?

0.2 pt (24h)3m

70+

100%

80+

100%

90+

100%

+7 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità26 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

ieri

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

5.4

100%

5.5

100%

5.6

100%

+6 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità10 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

15 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Price of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026

7.5 pt (24h)3m

$12,000-$13,999

+7.5pt32.2%

$14,000-$15,999

+4.1pt18.1%

$10,000-$11,999

+3.7pt16.9%

+3 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità10 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How much will GTA 6 cost? (USA, PlayStation 5, digital)

($71, $91]

97.5%

[$61, $71]

1.1%

More than $91

+1 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità78 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

22 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If elected, will Graham Platner vote more like John Fetterman or Elizabeth Warren?

Elizabeth Warren

85%

John Fetterman

15%

Previsione della comunità8 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

ieri

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

Any American receives it by end 2025

100%

Any American receives it by end 2026

100%

Limit set at or below 99th percentile wealth or income

73.9%

+15 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità102 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

2 ore fa

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Asset Cripto Correlati

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

How many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?

Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

What is the base of the next nice number?

What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?

Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?

Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]

Will there be a moon base by 2030?

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

Where will I live in October 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2028?

How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Price of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026

How much will GTA 6 cost? (USA, PlayStation 5, digital)

If elected, will Graham Platner vote more like John Fetterman or Elizabeth Warren?

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")