Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeMenlo Park, CA 27.8%In testa tra 8 esiti
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 20 ore fa
Obsoleto24 apr 26, 18:30 UTC1 ott 26, 00:00 UTC
Trend
0.5%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsHow will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]
Manifold MarketsWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.
- The market resolves equally among tied cities.
- For context, this definition would have resolved "the named outcome" (where my parents live) for the vast majority of my childhood, and "the named outcome" for most of my college months.
- I strongly expect it to resolve "the named outcome" for July and August 2026, where I have plans to sublet for my MIRI job.
- This definition does not always align with where I actually live.
- It would have resolved "Portland, OR" during July 2018 when I was at sleepaway camp, probably "St. Louis, MO" in July 2025 (Epsilon Camp counselor), and I think "Ardsley, NY" during August 2025 (when I slept in like 9 different cities).
Mercati aperti
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 2027+5.5pt56.8%
- June 30, 202734.2%
- December 31, 20268.1%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 6,8 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 79,5K €
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M-0.5pt59%
- $1B-4.0pt46%
- $2B43%
+7 altri esiti
MANIFOLD MARKETSPrice of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026
- $12,000-$13,999+7.5pt32.2%
- $14,000-$15,999+4.1pt18.1%
- $10,000-$11,999+3.7pt16.9%
+3 altri esiti
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 58,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 389,7 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- No94.4%
- Yes5.6%
- Volume totale
- 80K €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?
- 5–7 wins40.2%
- 8-9 wins30.2%
- 10-11 wins13.2%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 97,1 €
- Volume 24h
- Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]
- When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
- What is the base of the next nice number?
- What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Where will I live in October 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota Menlo Park, CA al 28% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Where will I live in October 2026??
- Where will I live in October 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Where will I live in October 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.