Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeMenlo Park, CA 72.2%In testa tra 8 esiti
Previsori
16
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto24 apr 26, 18:30 UTC1 nov 26, 00:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Where will I live two years from now?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Manifold MarketsHow will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]
Manifold MarketsWhat share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
Manifold MarketsBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.
- The market resolves equally among tied cities.
- For context, this definition would have resolved "the named outcome" (where my parents live) for the vast majority of my childhood, and "the named outcome" for most of my college months.
- I strongly expect it to resolve "the named outcome" for July and August 2026, where I have plans to sublet for my MIRI job.
- This definition does not always align with where I actually live.
- It would have resolved "Portland, OR" during July 2018 when I was at sleepaway camp, probably "St. Louis, MO" in July 2025 (Epsilon Camp counselor), and I think "Ardsley, NY" during August 2025 (when I slept in like 9 different cities).