Previsione della comunità attuale
OpenAI 75.5%In testa tra 13 esiti
Previsori
11
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+27.8 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo8 apr 26, 19:16 UTC31 dic 00, 20:12 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?
Manifold MarketsConditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible?
Manifold MarketsIn 2040, who will Manifold vote as having had the most positive impact on the development of AI in the 21st century?
Manifold MarketsWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiRegole
Core Resolution Criteria
- Primary Attribution Rule
- The market resolves to the organization that developed the AI system that is most causally responsible for the extinction event.
- Successor / Self-Improvement Clause
- If the decisive system is:
- autonomously derived,
Mercati aperti
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 2027-1.0pt53.9%
- June 30, 202736.5%
- December 31, 20268.7%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 6,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,8K €
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M59%
- $1B50%
- $2B43%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 644,7K €
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 58,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,1K €
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- No94.4%
- Yes5.6%
- Volume totale
- 80,1K €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?
- 5–7 wins40.2%
- 8-9 wins30.2%
- 10-11 wins13.2%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 97,2 €
- Volume 24h
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]
- If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?79.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?74.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?63.9%
+3 altri esiti
- When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
- What is the base of the next nice number?
- What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
- Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?
- Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI??
- Manifold Markets quota OpenAI al 76% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI??
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2100.
- Come viene liquidato If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Core Resolution Criteria