Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 05:17 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
OpenAI 75.5%In testa tra 13 esiti
Previsori
11
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto8 apr 26, 19:16 UTC31 dic 00, 20:12 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If an AI wipes out humanity on Earth, what will be true of this AI?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same day?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Core Resolution Criteria
- Primary Attribution Rule
- The market resolves to the organization that developed the AI system that is most causally responsible for the extinction event.
- Successor / Self-Improvement Clause
- If the decisive system is:
- autonomously derived,
