Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

baseOne-OffIA4a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti

Dati al 16 lug 2026, 17:10 UTC · criterio pm-quality-2

Previsione della comunità attuale

OpenAI 25.3%+0.6%

In testa tra 7 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 9 giorni fa

Obsoleto

29 ago 24, 15:5831 dic 30, 18:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

OpenAI25%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.

This market will be extended until the weak AGI is achieved.
If the model is a finetune, i will resolve to the creator of the base model.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/3479/?theme=dark)

Trend del volume

$23

15 lug2g di dati16 lug

Mercati Correlati

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

1,1K €

China invades Taiwan first: 11.9%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

164,9 €

5.4: 100%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Is GPT-4.5 the base model for o3?

87,9 €

Sì: 5.5%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

5,4K €

December 31, 2027: 66%

POLYMARKET

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

3,2K €

$500M: 64%

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of July?

254K €

Anthropic: 99%

POLYMARKET

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$64,528.79+0.85%

EthereumETH$1,883.35+1.40%

SolanaSOL$75.08+1.48%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0732+5.39%

XRPXRP$1.10+1.03%

BNBBNB$571.28+1.05%

Notizie Correlate

Coinbase Opens Payment Rails for AI Agents as Corporate Clients Accept Autonomous TransactionsBlockchain Reporter

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

Morpho Launches Fixed-Rate Lending Protocol Midnight on BaseThe Defiant

WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter

Morpho rolls out Midnight for fixed term lending on BaseCrypto News

Morpho launches fixed-rate lending protocol Midnight on Base to expand onchain credit marketsThe Block

Regole

Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.

This market will be extended until the weak AGI is achieved.
If the model is a finetune, i will resolve to the creator of the base model.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/3479/?theme=dark)

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

baseOne-OffIA4a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti

Dati al 16 lug 2026, 17:10 UTC · criterio pm-quality-2

Previsione della comunità attuale

OpenAI 25.3%+0.6%

In testa tra 7 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 9 giorni fa

Obsoleto

29 ago 24, 15:5831 dic 30, 18:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

OpenAI25%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.

This market will be extended until the weak AGI is achieved.
If the model is a finetune, i will resolve to the creator of the base model.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/3479/?theme=dark)

Trend del volume

$23

15 lug2g di dati16 lug

Mercati Correlati

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

1,1K €

China invades Taiwan first: 11.9%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

164,9 €

5.4: 100%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Is GPT-4.5 the base model for o3?

87,9 €

Sì: 5.5%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

5,4K €

December 31, 2027: 66%

POLYMARKET

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

3,2K €

$500M: 64%

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of July?

254K €

Anthropic: 99%

POLYMARKET

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$64,528.79+0.85%

EthereumETH$1,883.35+1.40%

SolanaSOL$75.08+1.48%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0732+5.39%

XRPXRP$1.10+1.03%

BNBBNB$571.28+1.05%

Notizie Correlate

Coinbase Opens Payment Rails for AI Agents as Corporate Clients Accept Autonomous TransactionsBlockchain Reporter

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

Morpho Launches Fixed-Rate Lending Protocol Midnight on BaseThe Defiant

WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter

Morpho rolls out Midnight for fixed term lending on BaseCrypto News

Morpho launches fixed-rate lending protocol Midnight on Base to expand onchain credit marketsThe Block

Regole

Resolves to the company which has created the AI model which triggered the resolution of the weak AGI question on Metaculus.

This market will be extended until the weak AGI is achieved.
If the model is a finetune, i will resolve to the creator of the base model.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/3479/?theme=dark)