Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 84.8%
Prévisionnistes
182
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète31 déc. 23, 10:36 UTC31 déc. 39, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill a millennium problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
This question will resolve YES if there is no known and publicly available technology that results in sleep not being needed at the end of 2039.
- Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
- If mind uploading or something akin to it exists by then, then if the technology does not require some downtime it will also resolve to NO.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211 k €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 85% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2039.
- Comment Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question will resolve YES if there is no known and publicly available technology that results in sleep not being needed at the end of 2039.