Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 79.9%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
3 sept. 26, 01:24 UTC3 sept. 00, 01:20 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a weak measurement experiment explicitly reconstruct a complex trajectory for quantum tunneling by EOY 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if a meaningful general formulation of Alexander Vilenkin's tunneling wave function of the universe—valid beyond highly symmetric, finite-dimensional "minisuperspace" toy models—is published in a reputable, peer-reviewed physics journal and achieves broad consensus within the quantum cosmology community prior to Vilenkin's death.
- The market will resolve to NO upon the death of Alexander Vilenkin (born May 13, 1949) if no such general formulation has been established and accepted by the physics community, or if the tunneling wave function remains mathematically ill-defined or restricted to simplified toy models.
- Resolution Guidelines:
- "Well-defined" requires a formulation that is proven to be mathematically consistent and free of pathological divergences or runaway perturbation instabilities in a general (non-perturbative) framework of quantum gravity.
- "Broad consensus" will be evaluated based on review papers, citations, and consensus among leading researchers in quantum cosmology (e.g., through prominent publications in journals like Physical Review D, Journal of High Energy Physics, or Classical and Quantum Gravity).
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211 k €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 80% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time? doit être résolu le 3 septembre 2100.
- Comment Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria