Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 96%
Prévisionnistes
63
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète27 janv. 26, 22:23 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which lab will have the #1 model on Epoch AI's Capabilities Index (ECI) on November 6, 2026?
Manifold MarketsHighest score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath Erdős benchmark (68 open Erdős problems) by November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the top score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath: Erdős (68 open Erdős problems) be on November 7, 2026?
Manifold MarketsHighest Slay the Spire 2 (Ascension 10) win rate on Epoch AI's SpireClimb benchmark on November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich math problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketUS test scores in Math in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if a breakthrough-level problem from the Epoch AI FrontierMath Open Problems benchmark is solved.
- The benchmark classifies problems into four difficulty levels, with Breakthrough being the highest.
- Note that to avoid contamination solved problems will be removed from the benchmark.
- So a solution only counts for this market if an AI solves the problem before any human solution is found.
- Update 2026-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Scope of problems: Includes any future breakthrough-level problems added to the benchmark, not just those currently listed.
- AI vs human collaboration: The creator will defer to Epoch AI's determination of whether AI gets credit for a solution, but will use their own judgment if Epoch AI is unclear.