What will the top score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath: Erdős (68 open Erdős problems) be on November 7, 2026?
IAOne-Off14j
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle9% or higher (7+ solved) 63.8%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète8 oct. 26, 08:49 UTC8 nov. 26, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
What will the best score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath: Erdős benchmark be at the end of November 7, 2026 (US Eastern)?
- What the benchmark is: 68 conjectures from ErdősProblems.com, all still open research problems as of August 2026, written in Lean.
- A model gets $300 and 72 hours per problem, and a problem only counts if its proof passes Lean's proof checker.
- No partial credit, no grader judgment.
- Where things stand (Oct 8, 2026): Epoch has scored 5 models.
- GPT-6 Astra (max) leads at 2.9%, which is 2 of 68.
