Highest score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath Erdős benchmark (68 open Erdős problems) by November 30, 2026?
15.5 pts (24h)One-OffIA30j
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle5% to under 7% 36.6%+15.5ptEn tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+11.6 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète28 oct. 26, 21:47 UTC30 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
Epoch AI's FrontierMath Erdős benchmark has 68 Erdős problems that were still open as of August 2026, picked by Thomas Bloom (erdosproblems.com).
- A model has to write a complete Lean proof or disproof.
- Leaderboard: https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/frontiermath-erdos
- State on 2026-10-28 (Epoch's downloadable data, frontiermath_erdos.csv in https://epoch.ai/data/benchmark_data.zip):
- Top score: GPT-6.1 Sol (max) at 4.4% (3 of 68)
- Next: GPT-6 Astra and Claude Opus 5.5 at 2.9% (2 of 68)