Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Transformer-based architecture 95.4%En tête parmi 11 options
Transformer-based architecture 95.4%Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète11 nov. 24, 23:53 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the top score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath: Erdős (68 open Erdős problems) be on November 7, 2026?
Manifold MarketsSOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model?
Manifold MarketsWill Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
An option resolves YES if it is true about the AI model, or program, known to be State of the Art in terms of the FrontierMath benchmark, at the end of the year 2026.
- It resolves NO otherwise.
- You're welcome to add any interesting facts that might or might not be true about the state of the art in math problems, as defined by achieving the highest score on the FrontierMath benchmarks.
- I reserve the right to cancel any option that is too vague, too improbable, etc. See also: @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-y0LE5uE9n9 @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-ROldIhZZgt (this market) @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-RQptyR5uO8
- @/Bayesian/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o-hyPtIE98qZ @/MatthewBarnett/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o