Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 94.3%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard11 juil. 25, 13:16 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Will any state-of-the-art (SOTA) general-purpose AI system at the end of 2026 be a reasoning model?
- Resolution Criteria:
- This market will resolve YES if, on December 31, 2026, any AI system widely considered SOTA meets all of the following criteria for a "reasoning model":
- It is a Language Model - The system must be able to input and output language.
- As an example of what would not count: AlphaGo
- It uses inference-time compute - The system must be capable of using more than a single forward pass before giving its final output, with the ability to scale inference compute for better performance
