By the end of what year will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?
24.2 pts (24h)One-OffScience10aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2029 99%+29.6ptEn tête parmi 16 options
Prévisionnistes
31
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+24.2 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
22 mars 25, 11:49 UTC31 déc. 36, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWill some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
Manifold MarketsWill some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiRègles
When the next (2nd) millennium prize problem is solved, that year and all future years will resolve yes.
- The publication date of the solution (without significant gaps) will be used (UTC).
- To count, a large majority of the mathematical community has to view it as a valid solution.
- (This is almost certainly equivalent to the Clay institute offering to award the prize.)
- A particular year will resolve no if at least one month into the next year no serious solution has been posted.
- A solution proposed by anyone not affiliated to a research institute is not considered serious unless a professional mathematician has highlighted it as such.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211 k €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour By the end of what year will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2029 à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand By the end of what year will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? sera-t-il résolu ?
- By the end of what year will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2036.
- Comment By the end of what year will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : When the next (2nd) millennium prize problem is solved, that year and all future years will resolve yes.