Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 99.2%
Prévisionnistes
46
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
1 juin 26, 13:01 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?
Manifold MarketsMillennium: Prize Problem solution published before 2028 and verified?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2028, the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) officially announces that one of the six remaining Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, or officially awards the Millennium Prize for its solution.
- The remaining six eligible problems are:
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture
- Hodge conjecture
- Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness
Marchés ouverts
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 57,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 86,7 k €
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 203076%
- Before 2029+38.1pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 153,9 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-0.3pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+5.0pt75.5%
- 2-0.5pt21.6%
- 32%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-3.6pt77%
- No23%
- Volume total
- 286,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,5 k €
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- How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria