Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.4%
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18
Type de question
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 44 minutes
6 janv. 26, 22:55 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Sudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
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PolymarketRègles
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41144) Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
- Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War has gone into effect during 2026.
- The ceasefire must either
- last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026
- be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.
- If either the Rapid Support Forces or Sudanese Armed Forces are completely defeated, such that they control no permanent territory, this question will also resolve as Yes.