Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Before 2028-07-01 70.9%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
188
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
8 juin 24, 21:11 UTC16 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
Polymarket[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
The full-scale war in Ukraine started on 2022-02-24.
- As of June 2024 there haven’t been any ceasefire agreements covering the whole theater of war.
- This market will resolve positively as soon as a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire is established, lasting for at least a month and covering the whole territory of Ukraine and Russia.
- Minor confrontations that don’t lead to an escalation do not count as breaking the ceasefire.
- The market is also resolved positively if one of the following happens:
- Ukraine is fully conquered by Russia (or vice vera)
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-7.0pt73%
- September 18-7.0pt68%
- September 11-11.5pt59%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 413,2 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-1.0pt74%
- New People (NL)+0.6pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt80%
- Yes-4.5pt20%
- Volume total
- 9,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 264 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt49.6%
- October 31+0.5pt29.1%
- September 30+1.0pt12%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 301%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 62,7 M €
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Before 2028-07-01 à 71% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? doit être résolu le 16 janvier 2027.
- Comment When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The full-scale war in Ukraine started on 2022-02-24.