PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
December 14%+0.5ptEn tête parmi 4 options
Qualité du marché
32 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
9,3 k €
Liquidité moyenneCommentaires
2
Variation 7j
-0.9 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
14 nov. 25, 20:30 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurCivil War in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in Hungary in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the named outcome, 11:59 PM ET.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
- Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire.
- Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
- A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date.
- Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Sudan civil war ceasefire by which date? ?
- Polymarket cote December à 14% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Sudan civil war ceasefire by which date? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Sudan civil war ceasefire by which date? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Sudan civil war ceasefire by which date? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the named outcome, 11:59 PM ET.