Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 93.4%
Prévisionnistes
31
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 50 minutes
En retard13 janv. 26, 13:35 UTC1 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Sudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketWill there be a civil war in Hungary in 2026?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war with at least 1,000 deaths in Venezuela in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a civil war occurs in Iran by December 31, 2026.
- Civil war is defined as sustained armed conflict between the Iranian government and organized opposition forces, or between competing factions for control of the state, resulting in significant casualties and territorial control disputes.
- The conflict must involve organized military or paramilitary units engaging in coordinated combat operations across multiple regions of Iran.
- Resolution will be determined by reports from major international news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) and human rights monitoring organizations (Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International).
- A single incident or localized uprising does not constitute civil war; the conflict must demonstrate characteristics of prolonged, multi-front warfare.