Will there be a civil war with at least 1,000 deaths in Venezuela in 2026?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffLatin America4moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 93%
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16
Type de question
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète3 janv. 26, 17:24 UTC31 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRègles
A civil war will be defined as follows:
- There are at least two organized armed groups
- They're fighting for control of the government, territory, or policy
- The conflict reaches a certain scale of violence--defined here as at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in 2026 according to the high end of the range displayed on Wikipedia.
- If deaths only exceed 1,000 after 2026, it doesn't count.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a civil war with at least 1,000 deaths in Venezuela in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be a civil war with at least 1,000 deaths in Venezuela in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be a civil war with at least 1,000 deaths in Venezuela in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will there be a civil war with at least 1,000 deaths in Venezuela in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : A civil war will be defined as follows: