Will there be a civil war with at least 1,000 deaths in Venezuela in 2026?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffAmérique latine3mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 93%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète3 janv. 26, 17:24 UTC31 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a civil war in Hungary in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in Australia in 2026?
Manifold MarketsSudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketCivil War in Iran in 2026?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurRègles
A civil war will be defined as follows:
- There are at least two organized armed groups
- They're fighting for control of the government, territory, or policy
- The conflict reaches a certain scale of violence--defined here as at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in 2026 according to the high end of the range displayed on Wikipedia.
- If deaths only exceed 1,000 after 2026, it doesn't count.