[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.3%
Prévisionnistes
39
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète6 janv. 26, 22:12 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict? [METACULUS]
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
Manifold MarketsRusso-Ukrainian War ends officially by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia control the Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov at the end of 2026?
FutuurIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRègles
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41138)Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
- Metaculus high-level description:
- This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has gone into effect during 2026.
- The ceasefire must either
- last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026
- be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
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- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour [ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand [ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- [ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment [ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41138)Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.