Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92%
Prévisionnistes
29
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète16 août 25, 09:06 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia control the Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov at the end of 2026?
FutuurUkrainian Premier League: 2026-27 Winner
PolymarketUkrainian Premier League: 2026-27 Runner-Up
PolymarketRègles
reference UN or Wikipedia for resolution
- Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026 at least one of the following is true:
- The UN Treaty Collection (UNTS) lists a bilateral instrument between Ukraine and the Russian Federation that explicitly ends the armed conflict (e.g., “peace treaty,” “peace agreement,” or an armistice/cessation of hostilities that states it ends the war) and shows it entered into force on or before the deadline.
- The effective “entry into force” date controls, even if UNTS posts it later.
- Primary source: UN Treaty Collection/UNTS search.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Russo-Ukrainian War ends officially by end of 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Russo-Ukrainian War ends officially by end of 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Russo-Ukrainian War ends officially by end of 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Russo-Ukrainian War ends officially by end of 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : reference UN or Wikipedia for resolution