Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.2%
Prévisionnistes
54
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard22 janv. 25, 10:36 UTC1 févr. 27, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
Manifold MarketsRusso-Ukrainian War ends officially by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia control the Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov at the end of 2026?
FutuurUkrainian Premier League: 2026-27 Winner
PolymarketRègles
This market was created as the direct opposite of @chrisjbillington’s “Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War” with identical resolution criteria, but instead for Russia.
- https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian
- Identical criteria with “Ukraine” replaced with “Russia”:
- This market will resolve YES if and when Wikipedia's English page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox "Result: Russian victory", and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.
- It will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Russia is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Ukraine or some coalition of which Ukraine is a part.
- Any other "result" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as "ongoing" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like "Partial Russian victory" or "Russian victory with territorial losses(/gains)".
