Manifold Markets
Marché de prédiction en monnaie fictive où chacun peut créer et négocier des marchés en utilisant le mana, une monnaie virtuelle qui ne peut jamais être convertie en argent réel. Aucune vérification d'identité n'est nécessaire pour s'inscrire.
Visiter Manifold MarketsDisponibilité
Source de prévision ou d'argent fictif ; l'éligibilité au trading ne s'applique pas.
KYC / Identité
Aucune vérification d’identité requise
Méthodologie et accès
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Règlement en
Mana (play money)
Type de marché
Limit orders + AMM (CPMM)
Statistiques en direct
Marchés ouverts34 476
Marchés totaux49 957
Participants965 482
Moy. prévisionnistes/question19.8
Résultats moyens/marché4.0
Taux de résolution31%
Dernière mise à jour21 oct. 2026, 4:39
Catégories Principales
1. One-Off31349 Marchés ouverts
2. Politique6268 Marchés ouverts
3. US Politics5376 Marchés ouverts
4. IA5312 Marchés ouverts
5. Tech5022 Marchés ouverts
Historique des résolutions
12,186 marchés résolus · depuis 2022 · 100% horodatés par le fournisseur
Explorer sur CoinRithm
Lectures associées
- Meilleurs Marchés de Prédiction en 2026 : 17 Plateformes Comparées (Réglementation, Frais, Accès et Pour Qui)
- Comparaison des Frais des Marchés de Prédiction (2026) : Polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood, PredictIt et Plus
- Les Marchés de Prédiction Sont-ils Légaux aux États-Unis ? Ce qu'un Débutant Doit Savoir (2026)
Marchés ouverts
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill this question get 111 traders in 555 days? (October 23, 2026) UTC
- 10 traders in 10 days (April 26)100%
- 20 traders in 20 days (May 6)100%
- 30 traders in 125 days (August 19)100%
+16 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 12,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2,1 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSBy the end of 2050, what will my best guess be for the number of people that have died from climate change since 2000?
- 1M-10M-2.6pt22.7%
- <10K (includes negative numbers)19.7%
- 10M-100M-14.0pt18.9%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 113,9 €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhen will Voyager 2 stop transmitting any scientific data?
- 2028-2.3pt11.1%
- 2027-3.1pt10.2%
- 2026-0.7pt10%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 48,1 €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETS(Week 4) NHL 2026-27 Mega-Market: All Games 🏒
- Sharks beat Canadiens (10/20)100%
- Kings beat Capitals (10/20)100%
- Maple Leafs beat Blue Jackets (10/20)100%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 30 k €
- Volume 24h
- 21,8 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhen will I reach 100 pounds?
- Before Aug 2027+48.8pt98.8%
- Before May 2027+48.0pt98%
- Before Feb 2027+11.7pt90.8%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 771,7 €
- Volume 24h
- 364,6 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich storm names used in the 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season?
- Arthur100%
- Bertha100%
- Cristobal100%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 3,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 93,9 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSAs of 1/1/2027, which fund manager will have the largest fund dedicated to the PE secondary market?
- Ardian32.8%
- Apollo-1.7pt6.5%
- Lexington-1.1pt2.5%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 30,3 €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSGas Price on October 26
- 4.1999 or more?-42.0pt48%
- 4.2199 or more?-57.0pt23%
- 4.2399 or more?-46.0pt12%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 3,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich results will happen during Week 8 of the College Football Season?
- Delaware defeats Missouri State+40.9pt99.9%
- Miami (FL) defeats Pittsburgh92%
- UConn defeats UMass85%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2,4 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat percent of people will be micro-chipped by 2040?
- 0%14.7%
- 100%-3.9pt13.4%
- 1%7.8%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 24,1 €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSWho will be elected President of France in the 2027 presidential election?
- Marine Le Pen-34.7pt48.4%
- Édouard Philippe+10.1pt18.1%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon+7.8pt10.2%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 676,4 €
- Volume 24h
- 194,1 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhen will an AI Model first score >= 170 on the Epoch Capabilities Index?
- October 2026+33.1pt59.6%
- November 2026-19.2pt19.4%
- December 2026-11.1pt7.2%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 561,9 €
- In year 2030, what will the general US population think of the effectiveness and necessity of the measures the government took against the COVID-19 in years 2020-2022?
- Barcelona VS Real Madrid | Laliga | 25 October 2026
- What will be the most streamed song on Spotify this week?
- Who will headline the 2027 Super Bowl Halftime Show?
- If X is true, will Democrats get a majority in the Senate in 2026?
- SF Supervisor D8 Election: Manny Yekutiel First round position?
- Which player will lead the league in receiving yards in the 2026 regular season?
- Who will win Best Actor at the 2027 Academy Awards?
- How many Falcon 9/Heavy launches will SpaceX conduct in October 2026?
- Who will create the first AI model to generate a high quality movie before 2028?
- What will Elon Musk do in 2027? [ADD RESPONSES]
- Which Nov 2026 California ballot propositions will pass?
- US Average Gas Price on October 26 2026?
- (Week 7) NFL 2026 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide 🏈
- When will a person who was not screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for not doing so?
- Who will win the 2026 US Women’s Chess Championship?
- Which team will win the WNBA championship this season?
- Who will be the next Patriarch of Moscow and all Rus' after Kirill?
- Who will be the next Mayor of Croydon?
- Who will be my most streamed Spotify artist in October 2026?
- 2026/27 UEFA Champions League Top 8
- Which season will I be back in the Masters League?
- When will next codex reset occur?
- Which words will Trump say out loud between midterm election night (Nov 3, 7 PM ET) and Nov 5, 2026?
- What will be the MAX yield produced by my bell peppers 🫑 ?
- Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Georgia's 7th District?
- Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest?
- Who will be in the Israeli government following the next elections?
- F1 2026 Prop Bets United States 🇺🇸 (Austin, Circuit of the Americas) Grand Prix [LIVE, Add answers]
- Australia vs New Zealand Test Series Megamarket
- For which of the Millennium Prize Problems will the Million Dollars be taken ?
- NZ Election: National Party # of seats?
- When will the next Avengers film release?
- What will TSMC market cap be at the end of 2027?
- First House Minority Leader of the next Congress?
- What year will Earthblade be released?
- Who will be elected mayor of Toronto in 2026?
- Price of gas on Election Day?
- New wave of mobilization in Russia announced when?
- Which of these websites/apps will be sold or cease to exist by end of 2028? [Add answers]
- Elon Musk Giving Shares to the Public (props)
- October 2026 AI model releases
- Which names will be used for hurricanes in the 2026 Hurricane Season?
- Which NFL teams will have 12 or more wins in the 2026-2027 regular season?
- Who will next win a US Presidential Election besides Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
- Which NFL team will be the last to suffer a loss in the 2026-2027 season? (Last undefeated team)
- Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime by which date?
- What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]
- 2026-2027 Calder Trophy
- When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?
- Will the number of holders on this option (for each individual option) be...
- What will be the Top EU company by market cap at the end of 2026?
- Higher finish (Head-to-Head) League Stage 2026/27 UEFA Champions League
- How many successful SpaceX launches in October 2026 UTC
- Who will win the Ballon D’Or 2026?
- When Anthropic will release Jev/DecisionAPI alternative?
- MLB Season Prop Bets
- Israel election: Who will be the next prime minister?
- Will Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- How high will the US national average gas price get in 2026?
- Best Prompt Engineering News Source (Permanent)
- (Week 1) NBA 2026-27 Mega-Market: All Games 🏀
- Who will be the next White House Press Secretary?
- Global Average Temperature 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
- Maine Senate Margin of Victory?
- When will OpenAI hold its IPO?
- Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
- Taylor Swift @ Kansas City Chiefs Game Tracker
- Who will be elected mayor of Los Angeles in 2026?
- What will be the outcome of British Columbia's 2026 provincial election?
- Which sports will @ManifoldSports automate before 2027?
- When will a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for doing so?
- Which country will win the Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026?
- Who will win Nuevo Leon's 2027 Gubernatorial Election?
- What will be the next year North Carolina votes for a Democratic presidential candidate?
- Texas Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?
- What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
- Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Virginia's 5th District?
- Fed decision in March
- On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2026 Atlantic season storms reach?
- Which week will Anthropic's IPO prospectus (Form S-1) go public on SEC EDGAR?
- How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?
- Will Lindsey Graham be Reelected?
- Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia provincial election?
- How many seats will the People's Party get in the next Spanish general election?
- NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
- 3rd largest company end of October 2026?
- Which teams will be relegated after the 2026/27 Premier League season?
Marchés recherchés
Pages de cette plateforme ayant gagné en visibilité dans les moteurs de recherche, avec leurs résultats.
- Name a hack people swear by for staying fit long-term. (Bilt Rent Free Sep 1, 2026)1 sept. 2026
- Name a piece of festival etiquette everyone should know. (Bilt Rent Free Sep 1, 2026)1 sept. 2026
- Which party will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?9 oct. 2026
- Quem será o Bola de Ouro da 7ª edição da Copa Gosa?
- Who will win the California State Assembly 12th District Seat?
- What % of Americans will cite computers/technology as the US's top problem by Dec 31, 2026? (Gallup)
- Name a city with the craziest sports fans. (Bilt Rent Free Aug 1, 2026)1 août 2026
- Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026
- Name a reality show where romance seems more like a competition. (Bilt Rent Free Aug 1, 2026)1 août 2026
- Who will be Wes Streeting's Chancellor at the end of 2026?
- Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?
- 🇪🇸ESP vs 🇦🇹AUT [World Cup '26]2 juil. 2026
- In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
- who will win IIT (Isobowl Invitational Tournament) HS Division - add your team30 août 2026
- Will Daniel Lord still be living in a Tesla by the end of October?
- 🇨🇴COL vs 🇨🇩COD [World Cup '26]24 juin 2026
- 🇫🇷FRA vs 🇮🇶IRQ [World Cup '26]23 juin 2026
- IMO 2026 Bronze Cutoff?19 juil. 2026
- Quem ganhará a Copa Gosa?
- Rogue AIs before 2028?
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? [Polymarket]
- Which team will win ARML 2026?30 mai 2026
- Who will be Andy Burnham's Chancellor at the end of 2026?
- Will we get AGI before 2033?