By the end of 2050, what will my best guess be for the number of people that have died from climate change since 2000?
72.3 pts (24h)GéopolitiqueOne-OffMétéo
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Other 27.7%-72.3ptEn tête parmi 10 options
Other 27.7%-72.3ptPrévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-72.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète3 mars 23, 00:53 UTC2 janv. 51, 00:53 UTC
Tendances
Règles
I will only resolve YES answers created by order of magnitude (edit: OR <10K, which includes negative numbers)
- EG: 10K-100K, 100K-1M, 1M-10M, 10M-100M, etc. Please do not add answers that deviate from this format.
- I will not count effects that route through social effects of climate change.
- EG I will not count "climate-change related mass immigration increases social instability which is partially responsible for a war in which people die".
- I will count effects like "climate change caused high temperatures in a region which caused people to be more likely to die from sickness."
