Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 13:17 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle0 72.9%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète7 déc. 25, 05:48 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?
Manifold MarketsWill any of my current or future "WEIRD doomsday" markets resolve to YES by 2030?
Manifold MarketsLong shot bets: How many of these 10 markets will resolve as expected?
Manifold MarketsWhat markets will resolve Yes if Trump Elected, but No if anyone else is elected? [Free Response Correlation Market]
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRègles
This is an attempt to make an overall risk index; it will resolve exactly according to these underlying markets:
- @/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-formally-leave-the-OAASCz9ztA
- @/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta-dPUQqQCtQL
- @/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-a-newly-major-war-inv-2LO0IgPqzz
- @/IsaacKing/will-any-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate-602fc87e774f
- @/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-that-is-not-curren-pNszzP2O6E